If you can pick one race that’s generally not seen as likely to flip from the Republicans to the Democrats (or vice versa) that could shock the “experts” on Tuesday, which would it be and why? Which race are you calling to be November 7’s “upset special”?
A while back, I might have said Gary Trauner’s campaign against unpopular Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin for Wyoming’s sole House seat, but in the wake of Cubin’s physical threats against her wheelchair-bound Libertarian opponent, Thomas Rankin (who suffers from multiple sclerosis), a win here by Trauner may still be an upset, but it certainly would no longer be a “shocker”.
Therefore, my pick of the cycle goes out to my boy Bob Shamansky, a 79 year-old former one term wonder Congressman who represented this district from 1980-82. Ohio is clearly going to be a brutal state for Republicans this year, with a national trend magnified by the dismal unpopularity of outgoing Republican Gov. Bob Taft and the stuck-in-reverse campaign of Kenneth Blackwell to succeed him. With Strickland and Brown at the top of the ballot, Ohio Democrats are well poised for a revival, and if you believe the latest Columbus Dispatch polls (and I’d understand if you didn’t, given their dismal failure predicting the Reform Ohio Now ballot propositions last year), it could be a clean Democratic sweep of all statewide offices up for grabs this year.
So, why Bob? While his opponent, Pat Tiberi, breezed through 2004 with 62% of the vote, 2006 is shaping up to be a very, very different year. For one thing, Tiberi isn’t facing some underfunded gadfly: Shamansky has brought big money to the table–$1.64 million dollars, most of which came from his own bank account. By contrast, Ed Brown, Tiberi’s challenger in 2004, spent barely over $3,000 on his campaign. Secondly, intensive Democratic voter registration efforts and changing demographics in Franklin Country turned this seat a lot less red in 2004–Bush won it by the slimmest of margins (51-49), providing a good springboard for an opportunistic House Democratic challenger to make a serious run at Tiberi. Thirdly, Shamansky’s ads have been very good, alternately using well-executed humor and national heroes on his behalf.
Obviously, I’m banking a lot on my assumption (and hope) that Ohio voters are looking for change this year and are willing to vote for a 79 year-old man to express such desires, as well as my own blatant pro-Shamansky bias, but not a lot of prognosticators are seriously putting this one up on the big board of possible flips. The result on November 7 could surprise them.
….very few people seem to consider him a credible challenger, and there may very well be a fundraising gap that quantifies that assessment. Nonetheless, it’s a contest that seems imminently winnable on paper and it would be great if we could peel off one seat unexpectedly in the South, which continues to be an almost impenetrable GOP fortress even in the worst of times.
the “oldtimer” LOL. Yup, have to say that if Shamansky wins that’s a very major interesting upset.
NC-08 (Kissel), VA-10 (Feder), VA-11 (Hurst) would also fit into the major upset category. Geeze there are so many to choose from, head spinning!
I think I might go with Dave Mejias running against Peter King. Yes, NY Dems are expected to have a big year, but Peter King was always seen as highly entrenched and very safe. In fact, he’s never really had serious competition – which makes him more likely to be vulnerable this year.
Newsday (the biggest paper on Long Island) I believe had always endorsed King but this time went with Mejias, as did the Times. I’m not saying that I think these endorsements matter all that much, but rather that they might be a sort of “trailing indicator” of how high anti-GOP sentiment has risen.
Just to be clear, I’m not predicting a Mejias win. To the contrary – if he wins, it’d be something of a surprise. But I think a Mejias victory would really say a lot about the state of the GOP in NY and in the northeast generally. If Peter King can lose, then Mike Castle can lose.
over shady land-swapper Rick Renzi
well shocker depends on expectations but I see three.
1) KS-2 Nancy Boyda to take down Jim Ryun as the civil war in the GOP costs them a seat in tremendous upset. George BUSH himself showed up to prop up this ossified incumbent.
2) KY-3 John Yarmuth over Anne Northup. Northup’s recent back pedalling on Iraq confirms the nationalized nature of the Kentucky electorate in 2006. Kentucky is going to give the GOP a migrane Tuesday night.
3) FL-22 Ron Klein over Clay Shaw. Miami Herald confirms the building momentum for the best challenger campaign in 2006. Actually has KLEIN up 9.6% released Nov 5.
Idaho Gov: GOP Bruce OTTER to lose the Idaho Governor race
And boy I am getting nervous about what I am hearing out of Montana regarding the Senate race. Connie BURNS has a reputation of closing his eletions well and 2006 is following suit. I am crossing my fingers that Connie BURNS is not the shocker of 2006 in the Senate races.
And that MSNBC poll that put the Rhode Island Senate race as 46-Chafee 45-Whitehouse has to make one nervous. But it does seem an outlier to me. The Senate is going to make Tuesday one long evening I fear.
my picks for a lot of the closer races are on display at Precidt06.com. I am in the DailyKos group//pool.
and this is my new home district. I hear people everywhere here saying it’s time for him to come home.
Bill Winter… somewhere between how loony Tancredo is, how good of a candidate Bill Winter is, the grassroots support he has going there, his respectable amount of money he’s raised, the backing of Feingold, the horrendous climate in Colorado for the GOP, and Tancredo canceling all media and non-district appearances once he had conducted an interal poll… Even if he doesn’t win, I think his showing will shock quite a bit of people.
John Courage will make it to the runoff in TX-21, while I’m guessing that Ciro Rodriguez will not in TX-23.
I also think that Busansky will make a very impressive showing, if not win outright in FL-09…
I say Nancy Boyda takes out Jim Ryun in KS2.
OH-12 (which is very similar to OH-15: 1/2 of Franklin County — Columbus — in each district; both about 50% for Kerry).
KS-02 (after Ryan caught lying about Mark Foley and also because of the general discontent among moderate Republicans with the fundamentalist takeover of the Republican party in Kansas).
NC-08 (because of Hayes’ tie-breaking vote against fair trade).
But, I’ll go with Dave Loebsack in IA-02. The DCCC has put $0 into this race and Loebsack hasn’t raised much money on his own. But, I believe this is the most Democratic of all districts currently held by a Republican (Kerry got 55% here).
Mark Sanford is more unpopular than he appears, and I see all of the same prognisticators here that were seen in Roy Barnes race with Sonny Perdue.
I’m going to throw out one that no one on earth would suggest, Jim Hansen in Idaho’s second district. It’s completely a longshot, and the polls have him way behind, but it’s wouldn’t be the first time something like Jim winning on Tuesday would happen. A small example–Jim ran against the Idaho House Majority Leader back in 1988 or 90 when no one thought it was possible for anyone to win, and he did–by a very slim margin. He has run an incredibly smart campaign, and the incumbent has been largely non-existent. ALso, Jim’s father was a congressman from this same district and the name is fairly well known. I’m not banking any money on it, but it’d be great to see it happen.
also: it’s “Butch” otter, not bruce.
OK, how about a shocker in TX-10? Yeah, you heard me, the district that stretched from the suburbs of Houston to the suburbs of Austin. 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate Michael Badnarik has dropped 300,000$ into this race as a third party candidate. Ted Ankrum is the democratic candidate. Could this district be ripe for an upset? I dunno, no one’s polled it. But in case it actually happens, I’m throwing it out there, because if it does, I’ll look like a friggin’ genius.
I like Larry, too, and he’s been running a strong grassroots campaign. He could very well surprise. That’s a good choice.
and you heard it here first.
PA-16 – Lois Herr defeats 5-term R incumbent Joe Pitts.
Bono gets evicted. I’ve only seen one poll (an internal D) and that was good news. Bono denied knowing Foley until she had to admit she sold him his Jeep. I haven’t heard a peep or indy poll here, and the challenger’s web site looks circa 1997, but I this is on my big board (which by the way has Dems netting 26 – a fairly conservative estimate.
And I pick Pederson for the Senate upset. I know that goes against all polling (and my own usually pessimistic personality), but its just a gut feeling.
Mike Callaghan knocks off Shelley Moore Capito.
I actually have access to the early vote data for the Travis County part of that district. Would you believe me if I told you that the trends are nearly the same as the Travis portion of liberal Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s TX-25? The same lloyd who’s going to cruise to no runoff…
Granted, Harris turned out at a higher rate this year in early voting than Travis did compared to 2002. But the midcounties are rural and if they cut their margains by 5-10 points….
I could see upsets in Texas in TX-14 with Sklar as well as TX-32 with Mary Beth Harrell, who I’m told is running even with Carter in highly Republican Williamson county just north of Austin. Most of the turnout being in the easter half of the county affected by the Trans Texas Corridor which is a huge issue in the state right now.
That would blow me away, because it that happened, then I don’t see how they could without TX-21 and 23 going to runoff. In which case, I can’t wait to get blogging for y’all.
Believe it or not, there WAS a poll of TX-10, and it was quite shocking. It had McCaul 52, Ankrum 41, Badnarik (L) 8.
Chafee wins in RI.
Pederson over Kyl—-yep, Dem wave is giving hope so there should be a BIG turnout. Big shift in population since last time he ran UNOPPOSED! We get a lot of people from: California, Michigan, Minnesota & of course our legal Hispanic vote is growing. All which tend to be less conservative than our general population. We elected a Dem. Governor in 2002, that got our hopes up . With the Dem. tide we may squeak Pederson in.
Shamansky’s ads are a breath of fresh air. I hope you’re right. I’ve long supported Colleen Rowley, Trauner, Kissell and others mentioned here. And in Ohio, I like Lewis Katz OH-14.
But as a liberal, the upsets I’d love to see: Carol Shea-Porter in NH-1, and the even more viable Victoria Wulsin in OH-2. Look at their bios. People like that should be locks for Congress. It’s a strange world when everyone prefers lawyers over normal human beans.
My shocker is not one but two races.
IN-3, and IN-6.
If not wins they both will be much closer than expected.